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Wednesday, June 29, 2005

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North American Printing & Writing Shipments Fall 4.8% in April
3G Publishing  5/31/2005 
Shipments of printing & writing paper in North America fell 4.8% in April, as weakness in coated papers was especially evident and the overall shipment rate was 87%.

The volume of 2.46 million tons put the four-month total at 10.1 million tons, a decline of 1.5% from a year ago, according to the Pulp and Paper Products Council.

Coated freesheet shipments fell 12.4% to just 355,000 tons in the month and demand was down 7.8% as imports rose 7.7% to 120,000 tons. The shipping rate was 76%. Through April, demand is down 1.2% and shipments are up 2.5% to 1.55 million tons.

Shipments of coated mechanical also continued lower, with the ongoing strike at the UPM Miramichi mill and rebuilds by Stora Enso in Wisconsin taking volumes down 13.6% in the month and 8.8% year-to-date. The shipment-to-capacity ratio was just 79% and production of 434,000 tons fell 10.8%. Even with a 69.5% rise in imports to 95,000 tons of LWC, mainly from Europe, demand was off 3.2% and is just 0.1% higher after four months.

The uncoated woodfree data were again negative, with shipments falling 4.3% to 1.14 million tons and demand off 3.6% to 1.16 million tons, the PPPC reported. Year-to-date, shipments are off 3.6% and demand has dropped 3.4%. Uncoated fine paper shipments have fallen for five consecutive months and seven of the past eight.

Uncoated mechanical remains the growth sector of the four p&w grades. Shipments volumes rose 8.3% to 555,000 tonnes and have gone up 11.5% through April to 2.15 million tons.

The SC Council reported that SC shipments from North American mills rose 21.5% in April to 258,000 tons and that imports from Europe were down 8.2% to 41,000 tons. Domestic SC-A deliveries rose 8.6% while the growing and now-dominant other SC grades gained 37.2% to 131,000 tons.

The inventories picture at mills wiped out March’s 67,000-ton decline by rising 121,000 tons—not a good sign for producers seeking to hold on to recent price increases. The total 2.83 million tons is now up 11.7% from last year.

While all four p&w sectors saw inventories rise, coated freesheet added 62,000 tons from the end of March to 861,000 tons, while uncoated freesheet supplies rose by 20,000 tons to 1.47 million tons. UFS inventories are 12.5% higher than in April 2004. Coated mechanical added 24,000 tons in the month and uncoated mechanical 14,000 tons.

"Let’s hope we don’t spend all summer looking at these sorts of numbers," wrote Deutsche Bank’s Mark Wilde, who said they show some of the weakest volumes in recent memory. "These numbers should cause concern across much of the industry," he added.

Meantime, International Paper said it is indefinitely shutting the No. 3 paper machine at the Bastrop, La., mill due to high costs of wood, energy and chemicals. The shutdown will occur between June 5 and July 4, resulting in 86 lost jobs.

The company warned that it "will continue to evaluate market conditions and identify opportunities to improve efficiencies and reduce costs, after this machine is shutdown. Such changes could include changes in processes, operating systems, and staffing in all areas of the mill."

The 180,000 annual tons removed brings to 430,000 tons on three PMs that IP has shut recently. PM3 made mostly commodity uncoated freesheet paper with some specialty products. IP is also taking 120,000 tons of market downtime over three months.

--Gregg Fales, 3G Publishing

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